Characterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics
Identifieur interne : 000D09 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000D08; suivant : 000D10Characterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics
Auteurs : Lin Wang ; Joseph T. WuSource :
- Nature Communications [ 2041-1723 ] ; 2018.
Abstract
Over the past few decades, global metapopulation epidemic simulations built with worldwide air-transportation data have been the main tool for studying how epidemics spread from the origin to other parts of the world (e.g., for pandemic influenza, SARS, and Ebola). However, it remains unclear how disease epidemiology and the air-transportation network structure determine epidemic arrivals for different populations around the globe. Here, we fill this knowledge gap by developing and validating an analytical framework that requires only basic analytics from stochastic processes. We apply this framework retrospectively to the 2009 influenza pandemic and 2014 Ebola epidemic to show that key epidemic parameters could be robustly estimated in real-time from public data on local and global spread at very low computational cost. Our framework not only elucidates the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics but also advances our capability in nowcasting and forecasting epidemics.
Url:
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-017-02344-z
PubMed: 29335536
PubMed Central: 5768765
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000437
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000437
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000555
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 002E99
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 002E99
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 002E99
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 000D11
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 000D09
Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Characterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics</title><author><name sortKey="Wang, Lin" sort="Wang, Lin" uniqKey="Wang L" first="Lin" last="Wang">Lin Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Joseph T" sort="Wu, Joseph T" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Joseph T." last="Wu">Joseph T. Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></titleStmt><publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno><idno type="pmid">29335536</idno><idno type="pmc">5768765</idno><idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5768765</idno><idno type="RBID">PMC:5768765</idno><idno type="doi">10.1038/s41467-017-02344-z</idno><date when="2018">2018</date><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000437</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000437</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000437</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000437</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000555</idno><idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000555</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">002E99</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">002E99</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">002E99</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000D11</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000D09</idno><idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000D09</idno></publicationStmt><sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Characterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics</title><author><name sortKey="Wang, Lin" sort="Wang, Lin" uniqKey="Wang L" first="Lin" last="Wang">Lin Wang</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Wu, Joseph T" sort="Wu, Joseph T" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Joseph T." last="Wu">Joseph T. Wu</name><affiliation><nlm:aff id="Aff1"></nlm:aff></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Nature Communications</title><idno type="eISSN">2041-1723</idno><imprint><date when="2018">2018</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p id="Par1">Over the past few decades, global metapopulation epidemic simulations built with worldwide air-transportation data have been the main tool for studying how epidemics spread from the origin to other parts of the world (e.g., for pandemic influenza, SARS, and Ebola). However, it remains unclear how disease epidemiology and the air-transportation network structure determine epidemic arrivals for different populations around the globe. Here, we fill this knowledge gap by developing and validating an analytical framework that requires only basic analytics from stochastic processes. We apply this framework retrospectively to the 2009 influenza pandemic and 2014 Ebola epidemic to show that key epidemic parameters could be robustly estimated in real-time from public data on local and global spread at very low computational cost. Our framework not only elucidates the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics but also advances our capability in nowcasting and forecasting epidemics.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rvachev, La" uniqKey="Rvachev L">LA Rvachev</name></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cooper, Bs" uniqKey="Cooper B">BS Cooper</name></author><author><name sortKey="Pitman, Rj" uniqKey="Pitman R">RJ Pitman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Edmunds, Wj" uniqKey="Edmunds W">WJ Edmunds</name></author><author><name sortKey="Gay, Nj" uniqKey="Gay N">NJ Gay</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lemey, P" uniqKey="Lemey P">P Lemey</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hufnagel, L" uniqKey="Hufnagel L">L Hufnagel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Brockmann, D" uniqKey="Brockmann D">D Brockmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Geisel, T" uniqKey="Geisel T">T Geisel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Deirdre Hollingsworth, T" uniqKey="Deirdre Hollingsworth T">T Déirdre Hollingsworth</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ferguson, Nm" uniqKey="Ferguson N">NM Ferguson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Rm" uniqKey="Anderson R">RM Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Poletto, C" uniqKey="Poletto C">C Poletto</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Poletto, C" uniqKey="Poletto C">C Poletto</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bogoch, Ii" uniqKey="Bogoch I">II Bogoch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhang, Q" uniqKey="Zhang Q">Q Zhang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Colizza, V" uniqKey="Colizza V">V Colizza</name></author><author><name sortKey="Barrat, A" uniqKey="Barrat A">A Barrat</name></author><author><name sortKey="Barthelemy, M" uniqKey="Barthelemy M">M Barthelemy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Vespignani, A" uniqKey="Vespignani A">A Vespignani</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tizzoni, M" uniqKey="Tizzoni M">M Tizzoni</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Grenfell, B" uniqKey="Grenfell B">B Grenfell</name></author><author><name sortKey="Harwood, J" uniqKey="Harwood J">J Harwood</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hanski, I" uniqKey="Hanski I">I Hanski</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Vespignani, A" uniqKey="Vespignani A">A Vespignani</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gautreau, A" uniqKey="Gautreau A">A Gautreau</name></author><author><name sortKey="Barrat, A" uniqKey="Barrat A">A Barrat</name></author><author><name sortKey="Barthelemy, M" uniqKey="Barthelemy M">M Barthelemy</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Scalia Tomba, G" uniqKey="Scalia Tomba G">G Scalia Tomba</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Brockmann, D" uniqKey="Brockmann D">D Brockmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Helbing, D" uniqKey="Helbing D">D Helbing</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Barthelemy, M" uniqKey="Barthelemy M">M Barthelemy</name></author><author><name sortKey="Godreche, C" uniqKey="Godreche C">C Godreche</name></author><author><name sortKey="Luck, Jm" uniqKey="Luck J">JM Luck</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Balcan, D" uniqKey="Balcan D">D Balcan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Watts, Dj" uniqKey="Watts D">DJ Watts</name></author><author><name sortKey="Strogatz, Sh" uniqKey="Strogatz S">SH Strogatz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Balcan, D" uniqKey="Balcan D">D Balcan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fraser, C" uniqKey="Fraser C">C Fraser</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Pourbohloul, B" uniqKey="Pourbohloul B">B Pourbohloul</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ladner, Jt" uniqKey="Ladner J">JT Ladner</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Fasina, Fo" uniqKey="Fasina F">FO Fasina</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chevalier, Ms" uniqKey="Chevalier M">MS Chevalier</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Pandey, A" uniqKey="Pandey A">A Pandey</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kirsch, Td" uniqKey="Kirsch T">TD Kirsch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Gignoux, E" uniqKey="Gignoux E">E Gignoux</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wearing, Hj" uniqKey="Wearing H">HJ Wearing</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rohani, P" uniqKey="Rohani P">P Rohani</name></author><author><name sortKey="Keeling, Mj" uniqKey="Keeling M">MJ Keeling</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Tamerius, Jd" uniqKey="Tamerius J">JD Tamerius</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yang, W" uniqKey="Yang W">W Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Shaman, J" uniqKey="Shaman J">J Shaman</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Bobashev, G" uniqKey="Bobashev G">G Bobashev</name></author><author><name sortKey="Morris, Rj" uniqKey="Morris R">RJ Morris</name></author><author><name sortKey="Goedecke, Dm" uniqKey="Goedecke D">DM Goedecke</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lessler, J" uniqKey="Lessler J">J Lessler</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kaufman, Jh" uniqKey="Kaufman J">JH Kaufman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ford, Da" uniqKey="Ford D">DA Ford</name></author><author><name sortKey="Douglas, Jv" uniqKey="Douglas J">JV Douglas</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jt" uniqKey="Wu J">JT Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gm" uniqKey="Leung G">GM Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name></author><author><name sortKey="Cooper, Bs" uniqKey="Cooper B">BS Cooper</name></author><author><name sortKey="Riley, S" uniqKey="Riley S">S Riley</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Doxsey Whitfield, E" uniqKey="Doxsey Whitfield E">E Doxsey-Whitfield</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Khan, K" uniqKey="Khan K">K Khan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chowell, G" uniqKey="Chowell G">G Chowell</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wallinga, J" uniqKey="Wallinga J">J Wallinga</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Wu, Jt" uniqKey="Wu J">JT Wu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Peak, Cm" uniqKey="Peak C">CM Peak</name></author><author><name sortKey="Leung, Gm" uniqKey="Leung G">GM Leung</name></author><author><name sortKey="Lipsitch, M" uniqKey="Lipsitch M">M Lipsitch</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Shuaib, F" uniqKey="Shuaib F">F Shuaib</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list></list><tree><noCountry><name sortKey="Wang, Lin" sort="Wang, Lin" uniqKey="Wang L" first="Lin" last="Wang">Lin Wang</name><name sortKey="Wu, Joseph T" sort="Wu, Joseph T" uniqKey="Wu J" first="Joseph T." last="Wu">Joseph T. Wu</name></noCountry></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/SrasV1/Data/Main/Exploration
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000D09 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd -nk 000D09 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien
|wiki= Sante
|area= SrasV1
|flux= Main
|étape= Exploration
|type= RBID
|clé= PMC:5768765
|texte= Characterizing the dynamics underlying global spread of epidemics
}}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:29335536" \
| HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/Main/Exploration/biblio.hfd \
| NlmPubMed2Wicri -a SrasV1
| This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |  |